Van Drew in trouble?

Simon Persico is confident that Van Drew’s seat is also at risk. He’s a New Jersey Democratic strategist who is currently consulting for Bayly Winder, one of several challengers for Van Drew’s seat.

Persico said he believes the stage is set for a blue wave similar to 2018 when candidates like Mikie Sherrill and — ironically — a then-Democrat Jeff Van Drew, who later switched parties, were swept into office during Trump’s first term.

“ In a Democratic wave environment, Jeff Van Drew goes,” Persico said.

Winder, 33, recently worked at USAID before he was fired during the Trump administration’s purge of the agency. Among the four candidates challenging Van Drew so far, Winder has raised the most money by a considerable margin, with over $300,000 in his campaign coffers.

But that still pales in comparison to Van Drew, who has a war chest of over $1 million. Van Drew’s campaign did not respond to a request to comment on the race. Trump won Van Drew’s district by nearly 13 points in 2024. Van Drew himself won that year by almost 17%.

But Sherrill’s performance may signal a larger political shift in South Jersey. Turnout there surged in this year’s gubernatorial election, primarily benefiting the Democrat. Three counties in Van Drew’s district – Atlantic, Cumberland and Gloucester – flipped from red to blue in 2025.

Even in the South Jersey counties that Sherrill didn’t win, she was able to turn out more Democratic votes. In Salem County, Sherrill won nearly 3,000 more votes than Murphy received in 2021, while Ciattarelli added only about 600 more votes there in 2025.

Similarly, in Cape May County, Sherrill bested Murphy’s performance by over 4,000 more votes — compared to Ciattarelli, who added 1,300 votes this time around.

“That’s not a good sign for Van Drew. I do think he’s vulnerable,” Hale said.